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What’s new? Take a look at the latest instructional resources from the Cleveland Fed—from interactive posts and video explainers to games.
As with any forecast, there is not any promise that these inflation nowcasts will be accurate all the time. But Traditionally, the Cleveland Fed’s model nowcasts have performed very effectively—in many cases, they've got been more accurate than prevalent benchmarks from alternative statistical models as well as consensus inflation nowcasts from surveys of professional forecasters.
All data and knowledge is provided “as is” for private informational needs only, and is not meant to be financial tips nor is it for trading purposes or investment, tax, lawful, accounting or other assistance. Google will not be an investment adviser nor is it a financial adviser and expresses no view, advice or belief with respect to any of the businesses A part of this list or any securities issued by More hints People organizations.
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Using historic comparisons from 1999 to 2015, inflation nowcasts from the Cleveland Fed’s model have been highly accurate. Our model’s nowcasts conveniently outperform many different nowcasts from alternative statistical models, especially over the course of per month or quarter. But perhaps even additional noteworthy is definitely the model’s overall performance in comparison with the best available benchmarks: nowcasts from surveys of Specialist forecasters. The model’s nowcasts for CPI inflation are generally much more accurate in comparison to the consensus (average) nowcasts from the Blue Chip Financial Indicators survey. Its nowcasts for CPI and PCE inflation also are usually a lot more accurate compared to median nowcasts from the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia’s Survey of Experienced Forecasters (SPF).
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